# Causal Inference

Generalizing randomized-trial findings to a broader target population can yield distorted estimates when the trial sample is misaligned with that population. TRACE decomposes the asymptotic variance of the efficient generalizability estimator into a baseline-mismatch channel and a censoring channel, then uses a tree search to localize underrepresented subgroups and attribute each to its mechanism. In a case study generalizing the JTPA Study to U.S. JTPA-eligible adults, restricting to reliably generalizable subgroups narrows the 95% confidence interval for the refined estimand by 60%.

Generalizing randomized-trial findings to a broader target population can yield distorted estimates when the trial sample is misaligned with that population. TRACE decomposes the asymptotic variance of the efficient generalizability estimator into a baseline-mismatch channel and a censoring channel, then uses a tree search to localize underrepresented subgroups and attribute each to its mechanism. In a case study generalizing the JTPA Study to U.S. JTPA-eligible adults, restricting to reliably generalizable subgroups narrows the 95% confidence interval for the refined estimand by 60%.

Treating childhood medulloblastoma and ependymoma means trading recurrence risk against the long-term side effects of radiotherapy, yet current clinical indicators and molecular subgroups only give group-level risk. MANTIS takes genome-wide DNA methylation array data plus gene-level copy-number variation and uses a neural network to output individualized 10-year survival probability curves, reaching a c-index as high as 0.80 ± 0.07 in independent clinical trial cohorts, above current clinical indicators and subgroup-only models. An extension of the same framework flags about 60% of average-risk medulloblastoma patients who showed no significant survival disadvantage (P = 0.683) under lower-dose craniospinal irradiation.

Treating childhood medulloblastoma and ependymoma means trading recurrence risk against the long-term side effects of radiotherapy, yet current clinical indicators and molecular subgroups only give group-level risk. MANTIS takes genome-wide DNA methylation array data plus gene-level copy-number variation and uses a neural network to output individualized 10-year survival probability curves, reaching a c-index as high as 0.80 ± 0.07 in independent clinical trial cohorts, above current clinical indicators and subgroup-only models. An extension of the same framework flags about 60% of average-risk medulloblastoma patients who showed no significant survival disadvantage (P = 0.683) under lower-dose craniospinal irradiation.

Agent evaluation has relied on fixed benchmarks that report task success or failure but cannot say whether reviewing or steering an agent mid-trajectory is worth it at deployment. Researchers bring micro-randomized trials into agent trajectories, assigning review or direct execution with equal probability at each eligible decision, then estimate causal effects with augmented inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models. On τ-bench Retail, ToolSandbox and ImpossibleBench, review effects vary substantially across tool-call types and agent states, and the same data yield decision-group risk rankings.

Agent evaluation has relied on fixed benchmarks that report task success or failure but cannot say whether reviewing or steering an agent mid-trajectory is worth it at deployment. Researchers bring micro-randomized trials into agent trajectories, assigning review or direct execution with equal probability at each eligible decision, then estimate causal effects with augmented inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models. On τ-bench Retail, ToolSandbox and ImpossibleBench, review effects vary substantially across tool-call types and agent states, and the same data yield decision-group risk rankings.

Ataraxis AI released CTX, a causal multi-modal model that predicts the five-year recurrence-free gain from adding chemotherapy for HR+/HER2− breast cancer patients from routine pathology slides and clinical variables, rather than recurrence risk alone. Across 1,994 held-out patients from five cohorts in three countries, the treatment-by-biomarker interaction for CTX-τ was significant (p=2.1×10⁻⁶), and in the held-out phase 3 trials TAILORx and UNIRAD it separated patients who benefit from chemotherapy from those who may need treatment escalation.

Ataraxis AI released CTX, a causal multi-modal model that predicts the five-year recurrence-free gain from adding chemotherapy for HR+/HER2− breast cancer patients from routine pathology slides and clinical variables, rather than recurrence risk alone. Across 1,994 held-out patients from five cohorts in three countries, the treatment-by-biomarker interaction for CTX-τ was significant (p=2.1×10⁻⁶), and in the held-out phase 3 trials TAILORx and UNIRAD it separated patients who benefit from chemotherapy from those who may need treatment escalation.

Strength in fused-filament PLA parts modified with organo-modified montmorillonite depends jointly on clay exfoliation, melt rheology, interlayer thermal bonding and pore morphology, while earlier optimization mapped filler fraction and print parameters directly to mechanical properties. C³M-OMMT Twin chains clay exfoliation and rheology state, layer-by-layer thermal history, defect-interface graphs, causal mechanical response, Bayesian Pareto optimization and experimental validation. Across 0 to 5 wt.% clay and nozzle temperatures from 195 to 225 °C, its optimum is about 2 wt.% clay, 215 °C, 0.15 mm layer height and 35 mm/s, giving 62.5 MPa tensile strength, 94.1 MPa flexural strength and 2.18% void fraction.

Strength in fused-filament PLA parts modified with organo-modified montmorillonite depends jointly on clay exfoliation, melt rheology, interlayer thermal bonding and pore morphology, while earlier optimization mapped filler fraction and print parameters directly to mechanical properties. C³M-OMMT Twin chains clay exfoliation and rheology state, layer-by-layer thermal history, defect-interface graphs, causal mechanical response, Bayesian Pareto optimization and experimental validation. Across 0 to 5 wt.% clay and nozzle temperatures from 195 to 225 °C, its optimum is about 2 wt.% clay, 215 °C, 0.15 mm layer height and 35 mm/s, giving 62.5 MPa tensile strength, 94.1 MPa flexural strength and 2.18% void fraction.

ACED-Bench separates natural-language scientific scenarios from hidden probabilistic graphical models so agents must choose observational or interventional experiments within a four-turn budget and commit to causal answers, producing wide spread across models and agent designs on 180 hard tasks while strong agents near ceiling on a 150-question qualification check.

ACED-Bench separates natural-language scientific scenarios from hidden probabilistic graphical models so agents must choose observational or interventional experiments within a four-turn budget and commit to causal answers, producing wide spread across models and agent designs on 180 hard tasks while strong agents near ceiling on a 150-question qualification check.