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# XGBoost

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  1. Northeast India's multi-hazard warning moves past rainfall thresholds: an open platform ties landslides, flash floods and cut-off villages into one alert

    Northeast India has lacked a warning system covering landslides, flash floods and road cut-offs together, with monitoring relying on manual reports and fixed rainfall thresholds that rarely reach individual villages. SAMBHV streams IoT telemetry, weather and radar data through one pipeline, uses two-stage hybrid prediction and a three-way vote of physics, AI and ground verification to set alert levels, and runs offline with multilingual query support. Across 311 disaster test cases the platform reports detection F1 of 0.87, an 8% false alarm rate and 30 seconds from threshold trigger to alert.

  2. Slash pine breeding moves past phenotype alone: training-fold marker preselection lifts growth-trait prediction by 11.9%

    Slash pine breeding cycles run more than a decade, so whether genomic selection can speed them depends on how markers are chosen. In 240 slash pine trees, a study confined genome-wide association analysis to each training fold, used association significance to preselect SNPs, and compared eight prediction models across twelve marker densities. Mean prediction ability for growth traits rose from 0.242 with random markers to 0.271 with preselection, an 11.9% gain; wood-quality traits gained 2.2%, oleoresin traits showed no change, and QTN covariates defined by PVE or cross-fold recurrence failed to beat the no-covariate baseline for nine of twelve traits.

  3. Standard pipeline called these tumors PTEN wild-type; a gradient-boosting model found 33 more deletions, and 75% of stainable cases lost the protein

    At the Dresden University Cancer Center's MASTERsg precision oncology program, a gradient-boosting model re-reads the raw bin-level copy-number data from TSO500 panel sequencing to find focal PTEN deletions that the standard pipeline misses. TSO500 averages read counts across bins within a gene, so focal events fall short of its fold-change threshold; the model flagged deletions in 33 of 204 samples classified as PTEN wild-type, and 15 of the 20 stainable cases showed absent or reduced PTEN protein.

  4. arXiv

    Pretrained TimesFM 3.0 cuts day-ahead building electricity error to 19.97 kWh, 43% below weekly seasonal-naive

    On 57 day-ahead test days for a university teaching building, pretrained TimesFM 3.0 with covariates reached 19.97 kWh hourly mean absolute error, about 43% below the weekly seasonal-naive baseline, without training building-specific weights.

  5. medRxiv

    Undiagnosed hypertension screening drops missed cases from 1,237 to 729 with positive-unlabeled learning

    Treating undiagnosed hypertension screening as a positive-unlabeled problem in 43,105 Chinese community adults reached a sensitivity of 0.817 and 729 false negatives in an independent test set, 41.1% fewer than standard XGBoost.

  6. XGBoost beat NeuralProphet for Budapest metro M4 demand forecasting, and its SHAP explanations matched expert expectations

    Using one year of hourly boarding data from Budapest metro line M4 (216 usable days, 05:00–24:00) restricted to a single station and direction (Kálvin tér toward Kelenföld vasútállomás) and a 6-hour forecast window, the study fairly compared inherently interpretable NeuralProphet with a black-box XGBoost interpreted post hoc via SHAP, finding XGBoost more accurate (MAE 91.0753 vs 230.2803, RMSE 144.7094 vs 363.2115, R-squared 0.9600 vs 0.7896) and SHAP temporal-feature insights consistent with NeuralProphet seasonality components and transport expert knowledge.

  7. Extracting heart girth and body length from 2D images with age and sex, XGBoost predicts body weight in unseen Surti goats at R²=0.7955

    This study used Mask R-CNN to segment goats from two-dimensional images and extract heart girth and body length, combined these with age and sex metadata, trained XGBoost, Random Forest and CatBoost and integrated them with weights of 0.5/0.3/0.2; on a validation set split by Animal ID (37 goats) XGBoost reached R²=0.8514 (RMSE=4.26 kg, MAE=3.47 kg, MAPE=16.27%), and on a completely unseen test set (37 goats) XGBoost performed best with R²=0.7955 (MSE=29.15 kg², RMSE=5.40 kg, MAE=4.01 kg, MAPE=16.38%) while the weighted ensemble recorded R²=0.7713 (MSE=32.60 kg², RMSE=5.71 kg, MAE=4.13 kg, MAPE=16.60%), indicating that combining visual and morphometric information under strict group-based evaluation provides reliable non-contact body weight estimation on unseen livestock.

  8. A mechanism-informed ML framework predicts polymeric long-acting injectable release with XGBoost (test R² = 0.9774) and finds predictive importance nearly uncorrelated with intervention effects (r = 0.132 and −0.021)

    The study builds a mechanism-informed machine learning framework that chains a pharmaceutical-knowledge-driven directed acyclic graph, causal structure discovery (PC, NOTEARS, DirectLiNGAM), XGBoost release prediction, explainable AI (SHAP), ATE/CATE intervention-effect estimation, and counterfactual formulation analysis; on a public dataset of 181 release profiles, 3,783 fractional release measurements, and 43 drug-polymer pairs, XGBoost reached test R² = 0.9774, RMSE = 0.0491, and MAE = 0.0339, and correlation and SHAP importance agreed strongly (r = 0.761) while both agreed poorly with intervention-effect estimates (r = 0.132 and −0.021), indicating that variables useful for prediction differ from those that can be manipulated.

  9. Counterfactual Prescriptions via Hierarchical ML for Missed Chemotherapy Appointment Prevention

    Using 1,825,948 chemotherapy appointment records from the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, this study builds a hierarchical machine learning pipeline that first predicts cancellations and then no-shows, achieving F1-scores of 0.76 and 0.82 and improving minority-class performance by 7–10 points over a single-stage multinomial baseline; it further uses semi-supervised learning to infer no-show reasons from short-notice cancellations (weighted F1 of 0.57 and 0.54) and applies counterfactual simulation to evaluate interventions, finding that standard reminders are less effective than previously reported while provider consistency and commitment-based scheduling can reduce cancellations and no-shows.

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