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Earth & Environmental Sciences

  1. CWAI folds pollutants and weather into one learned state, beating WRF-Chem error at 10 days across six pollutants

    Regional air-quality forecasting has relied on online-coupled numerical chemistry-weather models whose skill is sensitive to meteorological initial conditions, emission inventories and lateral boundary conditions. CWAI treats meteorology, particles and reactive gases as one joint atmospheric state, driven by two consecutive states, emissions and static surface descriptors through a hierarchical Swin Transformer, and rolls out 40 six-hour steps to a 10-day forecast. Against WRF-Chem over 62 January and July 2020 starts, CWAI had lower initialization-weighted RMSE for all six surface pollutants, from 15.8% for PM2.5 to 25.8% for NO2.

  2. arXiv

    No training, no change labels: SpotDiff compares pixel-level features to reach 82.46 F1 on remote sensing change detection

    Remote sensing change detection usually depends on large collections of temporally aligned, pixel-level annotations, which limits scaling across regions and platforms. SpotDiff composes DINOv3 semantic features, AnyUp pixel-resolution feature reconstruction and SAM 3 text-guided region proposals into a training-free pipeline, then compares the cosine similarity of the two dates' reconstructed features inside the proposed regions. On LEVIR-CD the ViT-7B version reaches 82.46 F1, 2.06 points above the strongest prior training-free method; on SECOND it raises building-change IoU by 10.3.

  3. Climate emulators can train on synthetic scenarios: MIT cuts full earth-system model runs needed for training data to one

    An MIT team has developed a training-data optimization method that lets a climate emulator trained only on carefully selected synthetic scenarios predict outcomes of scenarios it never saw, while the traditional emulators evaluated failed to adapt to new situations. The method reduces the number of full earth-system model runs needed to generate training data from six to eight down to one, shortening production time for these fast surrogate models. Emulators trained this way also captured a local pollutant-control case in which one pollutant falls while other emissions keep rising.

  4. arXiv

    Cloud tomography drops from half an hour to 3.5 seconds: HybridCT also cuts extinction error on synthetic shallow clouds

    Large-scale observations of the three-dimensional interior of low clouds have been missing because physics-based tomography repeats expensive 3D radiative-transfer calculations, a cost that has kept it from large, realistic cloud scenes. HybridCT splits the problem: a U-Net estimates cloud optical thickness projections from multi-angle passive radiances, and SART then explicitly inverts those projections into a 3D extinction field. On a synthetic low-cloud scene it reconstructs extinction with RMSE 13.3 km⁻¹ in 3.5 s, against 22.7 km⁻¹ in about 30 min for the physics baseline AT3D.

  5. arXiv

    Neural processes assumed clean inputs: DnNP folds denoising into meta-learning and cuts PM2.5 interpolation RMSE by up to 30%

    Standard neural processes treat inputs as noise-free observations, so sensor measurement error degrades both predictions and uncertainty estimates. DnNP makes the clean input a latent variable inside the neural-process framework and trains a denoiser jointly with meta-learning through variational inference, predicting directly from noisy inputs. On PM2.5 spatial interpolation from 34 air-quality sensors in Brookline, Massachusetts, DnNP reduces RMSE by up to 30% and NLL by up to 73% relative to standard neural processes.

  6. arXiv

    Mass conservation moves into a distributed hydrologic network: PECAN matches outlet streamflow in a Colorado snow basin but releases winter snowpack early

    Mass-conservation constraints had been embedded only in lumped LSTMs, which yield basin-averaged time series and cannot test whether internal states are hydrologically meaningful. PECAN recasts the constraint in a distributed convolutional LSTM, with a strict precipitation-only variant, PECANMC, and a relaxed variant, PECANMCR, trained solely on streamflow at two gauges. In the snow-dominated North Platte Headwaters in Colorado, both variants match lumped deep-learning baselines and the distributed process model VIC on outlet streamflow and expose spatially explicit internal states, yet diagnostics show the model removes winter snow water storage prematurely instead of holding it for spring release.

  7. arXiv

    MarsNet learns the Martian atmosphere from observations alone: 4.2 K near-surface temperature error and the best surface pressures of four products

    The Martian atmosphere has been described by reanalyses that assimilate spacecraft retrievals into general circulation models, so where observations are sparse their fields largely reflect the model. MarsNet trains a two-hour forecast and a per-window observation update jointly inside a fixed physical structure, using no reanalysis or model field as input or target. On MGS radio-occultation temperatures assimilated by no dataset, it matches or improves on the three reanalyses in the lowest three scale heights, with a near-surface RMSE of 4.2 K against 4.4–5.4 K, but is less accurate aloft.

  8. arXiv

    Causal discovery now reads direction from a symbolic-regression posterior: causalBMS tops 13 of 21 CauseMe dataset-metric pairs and returns closed-form mechanisms

    Causal discovery no longer has to rest on conditional-independence tests or a single best-scoring model. causalBMS scores each candidate parent by how often it appears in expressions sampled from a Bayesian symbolic-regression posterior, so it still gives a direction in bivariate, strongly autocorrelated and high-noise settings. On the CauseMe benchmark it ranked first in 13 of 21 dataset-metric pairs and second in four more, while also returning closed-form functional forms.

  9. arXiv

    Array coherence loss stops being discarded as noise: Topophone2 inverts array covariance into a slowness energy distribution

    Array processing has long treated inter-sensor coherence loss as a nuisance, and conventional beamforming assumes a far-field point source with incoherent noise between sensors. Topophone2 models the array covariance as a mixture of energy distributions over slowness, describing signal and environmental noise with skew-normal and angular-harmonic distributions that have analytical characteristic functions, then computes the posterior by variational Bayesian inference. On a synthetic abyssal T-phase, adding a fourth hydrophone raises the information gain on the angular-harmonic noise coefficients by 142%, while the gain on signal parameters and SNR rises by less than 8%.

  10. arXiv

    One2N pushes a 0.7° forecast model to 0.07°: four weeks on one 80 GB GPU, tropospheric skill intact

    As Earth-system AI models approach kilometre scales, halving grid spacing quadruples the grid-point count and the end-to-end training cost. One2N splits resolution refinement into successive increments: at each level the complete parent predictor is frozen and only a cross-resolution residual correction module is trained, so the parent's activations and optimizer states are never retained. One refinement level on the NeuralGCM-0.7° baseline yields One2N-0.07°, trained for about four weeks on a single 80 GB A800 GPU; against HRES-0.07° analyses it keeps the parent's tropospheric skill while reducing upper-stratospheric errors and resolving finer structure.