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# structural causal model

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  1. arXiv

    Constitutive discovery now asks which variable drives which mechanism: climate-chamber interventions recover the true graph in 7 of 10 runs, observational data in none

    Constitutive model discovery now asks which environmental variable drives which mechanism, not merely which candidate terms fit the response. A constitutive model with internal variables is written as a time-unrolled structural causal model, candidate graphs are scored by a weak-form equilibrium gap through the boundary value problem, and climate-chamber protocols count as interventions. On a synthetic perforated plate at about 0.01 px displacement noise, interventional data recover the true graph exactly in 7 of 10 runs, with no attribution error; correlated observational data never do.

  2. arXiv

    A 300M-parameter model pretrained only on a synthetic prior cuts bits per byte on six Wikipedia languages from 8 to about 1

    The authors present the Prior-Fitted Language Model (PFLM), a 300M-parameter byte-level transformer pretrained only on synthetic non-linguistic sequences generated by recurrent structural causal models, which with frozen weights learns in context to predict real text: on English, Chinese, Hindi, Arabic, Japanese, and Korean Wikipedia, bits per byte falls from the uniform eight to about one at one million bytes of context, and the same model learns to count, compare magnitudes, and add approximately on numerals, predicts deterministic sequences such as Rudin–Shapiro, Kolakoski, and the prime indicator, and compresses six non-text domains from source code to speech below gzip and PPMd.

  3. bioRxiv

    SHERLOCK models perturbation effects as structured interventions on a latent state, recovering pathway relationships and predicting combinatorial effects across CRISPR, chemical, and spatial perturbation data

    The authors present SHERLOCK, an interpretable deep generative framework that represents genetic and pharmacological perturbations as structured interventions on a latent baseline cellular state, learns correlated and sparse perturbation representations, enables counterfactual estimation of downstream transcriptional effects under explicit identifiability assumptions, quantifies condition-dependent responses, and compositionally models combinatorial perturbations; across genome-scale CRISPR, chemical, and spatial perturbation datasets, it recovers perturbation relationships concordant with known biological pathways and pharmacological properties, identifies condition-dependent responses, and predicts combinatorial perturbation effects.

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