Wildfire forecasts move to a 12-hour clock: FireGraphNet's directed graph lifts near-front ranking 1.7–1.9 times a distance rule
Wildfire decisions are made in hours, yet most learned spread models predict daily on targets that include already burned area. FireGraphNet recasts roughly 12-hour growth as node classification on directed H3 hexagonal graphs: candidates are unburned cells within five rings of the front, edges carry wind alignment, elevation difference, fuel continuity and barriers, and a graph neural network passes messages along those edges. On five sealed California test fires the five variants reach average precision 1.7–1.9 times the strongest distance baseline, and the GINE variant keeps a 1.62-fold advantage out of state.