Remote sensing of Alaskan fires from 1984 to 2020 shows past burn scars cut reburning rates by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, and without this negative feedback the region would have seen 5 times more wildfires
Gaglioti et al. used remotely sensed data on Alaskan wildfires between 1984 and 2020 to examine fires that encounter previously burned areas and applied a logistic regression model to assess how strongly young fuels resist wildfire and whether warmer, drier conditions affect that resistance, finding that young vegetation in recently burned areas has historically exerted a strong negative influence on fire activity, with reburning rates 1 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than in older forests and burned-area perimeters often acting as barriers to later fires; a simple landscape burning model estimates that without this negative feedback Alaska would have seen 5 times more wildfires over the past 40 years; extreme fire weather significantly dampened this relationship, especially in younger for