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# Bradley-Terry Model

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  1. arXiv

    Purdue team's covariate-dependent CR-MRF jointly models ordinal ratings and predicts pairwise preferences more accurately than Bradley-Terry and Plackett-Luce on MovieLens

    The authors propose a covariate-dependent consecutive-ratio Markov random field (CR-MRF) that jointly models multivariate ordinal ratings, show that comparison models such as Bradley-Terry and Plackett-Luce arise as restrictions of it under independence and an exponential-race argument, and develop maximum likelihood inference with an importance-sampling estimator of the intractable normalizer; in simulations and on MovieLens, modeling ordinal scores directly yields more accurate and better-calibrated out-of-sample pairwise preference predictions than fitting comparison models to derived win-loss data.

    Purdue University West Lafayette
    Yujie Chen（First author）
    Consecutive-Ratio Markov Random FieldMaximum Likelihood InferenceImportance SamplingBradley-Terry ModelPlackett-Luce Model
  2. Scientific Reports

    LLM pairwise comparison of historical proposals at three Spallation Neutron Source beamlines ranks them in positive correlation with human ranking, matches human reviewers at flagging high-publication-potential proposals, and costs over two orders of magnitude less

    Using historical general user proposals from three beamlines at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Spallation Neutron Source (EQ-SANS, CNCS, POWGEN), the study has large language models judge every pair of proposals within a run cycle, converts the win-lose outcomes into rankings with the Bradley-Terry model, and finds that LLM rankings correlate positively with human rankings (Spearman ρ about 0.2-0.8, rising to ≥0.5 after 10% outlier removal), show no statistically significant difference from human review in identifying proposals with high publication potential, cost over two orders of magnitude less, and support linear-complexity proposal similarity analysis via embedding models.

    Lijie Ding（First author）
    LLM-Assisted Proposal SelectionPairwise Preference RankingBradley-Terry ModelLarge language models

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