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# LightGBM

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  1. arXiv

    TokenCast forecasts token consumption during agent runs with composable segment costs, cutting MAE by 14.5% on average across 96 comparisons

    TokenCast learns a composable cost triple for each execution segment of an LLM agent (call count, net input-length change, and a cost residual), uses an exact composition identity to fold the cost of earlier context being re-read by every later call into a cumulative estimate, and refreshes the forecast from newly observed execution evidence without additional LLM calls; on SWE-bench Verified the mean cumulative prediction time is 32.8 ms per run, mean absolute error reduction against the strongest comparator averages 14.5% over 96 evaluated combinations across 4 task suites and 6 agent models, and offline budget-control replay uses 21.3% fewer tokens on average than a fixed-budget policy at matched trace completion.

  2. Research Square

    A physics-informed machine learning model predicted pesticide exposure in California; against 3,924 stream measurements, the two most-monitored chemicals correlated significantly while the pooled fourteen-chemical correlation was weak

    The authors built a physics-informed screening model for California pesticide exposure: a first-order decay fate index based on soil half-life drives a LightGBM model that predicts weekly county-level pesticide application from 2016-2023 public agricultural, weather, and chemical-property data, and they validated the resulting exposure index against 3,924 U.S. Geological Survey stream measurements at 554 California stations never used in training; agreement was strong and significant for the two most-monitored chemicals (Malathion rho = 0.51, p < 10^-6; Metolachlor rho = 0.28, p < 10^-8), the pooled correlation across all fourteen monitored chemicals was weak, the application model generalized well across space (R2 = 0.64) and time (R2 = 0.

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