Peer Nowack

The study introduces ArchesClimate-SSP (AC-SSP), built on the ArchesWeather architecture and trained with an energy-score loss plus a variogram loss while conditioning on forcing concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O, six aerosol species, ozone), and trained on IPSL-CM6A-LR monthly data for 2015-2100 to autoregressively generate SSP scenarios unseen in training; on the held-out overshoot scenario SSP5-3.4 its 2090-2100 land surface temperature RMSE is 0.9739 K, lower than the statistical emulator MESMER-M's 1.0963 K, and its interannual variability of 0.6050 is closer to the IPSL target's 0.5166 than MESMER-M's 0.6375.

The study introduces ArchesClimate-SSP (AC-SSP), built on the ArchesWeather architecture and trained with an energy-score loss plus a variogram loss while conditioning on forcing concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O, six aerosol species, ozone), and trained on IPSL-CM6A-LR monthly data for 2015-2100 to autoregressively generate SSP scenarios unseen in training; on the held-out overshoot scenario SSP5-3.4 its 2090-2100 land surface temperature RMSE is 0.9739 K, lower than the statistical emulator MESMER-M's 1.0963 K, and its interannual variability of 0.6050 is closer to the IPSL target's 0.5166 than MESMER-M's 0.6375.