Bias-corrected 17-model CMIP6 ensemble projects global agricultural drought exposure rising from 0.71 to 0.78 by 2050, with South Asia, Southern Africa, South America and southern Europe croplands most at risk
Using soil moisture from 17 CMIP6 models bias-corrected against GLDAS and combined into a multi-model ensemble, the study characterizes 2015–2050 global soil moisture droughts with a non-parametric SSMI under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 and assesses agricultural exposure with a Drought Exposure Index overlaying cropland, finding intensified drought characteristics toward mid-century, longer durations and wider spatial extent under SSP5-8.5, pronounced drying in South America, southern Europe, South Asia and parts of North America, and a global mean DEI rising from 0.71 under SSP2-4.5 to 0.78 under SSP5-8.5.