Zhechun ZENG

Observational causal estimates gain a continuous reporting channel: the Bias Attribution Fraction (BAF) writes the share of an observed log relative risk attributable to systematic bias as a number between 0 and 1, with a 95% credible interval. Across 1,920,000 simulated repetitions, the calibrated P-value alone declared 36.02% of truly bias-dominated repetitions usable, adding the BAF point estimate cut that to 16.48%, and requiring the whole credible interval below 0.5 cut it to 10.16%. In a MIMIC IV beta-blocker target trial emulation, the 16.9% one-year mortality reduction associated with reaching target dose disappeared after calibration, with BAF 0.875 and a verdict of not usable as effect evidence.

Observational causal estimates gain a continuous reporting channel: the Bias Attribution Fraction (BAF) writes the share of an observed log relative risk attributable to systematic bias as a number between 0 and 1, with a 95% credible interval. Across 1,920,000 simulated repetitions, the calibrated P-value alone declared 36.02% of truly bias-dominated repetitions usable, adding the BAF point estimate cut that to 16.48%, and requiring the whole credible interval below 0.5 cut it to 10.16%. In a MIMIC IV beta-blocker target trial emulation, the 16.9% one-year mortality reduction associated with reaching target dose disappeared after calibration, with BAF 0.875 and a verdict of not usable as effect evidence.