Across 14 event logs, remaining-time error and uncertainty rise with delay, and uncertainty features lift average delay-detection recall from 0.21 to 0.61
Analyzing the intrinsic difficulty of delay detection across 14 public event logs, the study finds that remaining times are strongly right-skewed, that existing LSTM models capture the mode of the distribution but perform poorly on high-delay cases, and that prediction error and prediction-interval width both grow with true remaining time (positive in 10 of 14 logs); it then evaluates imbalanced regression approaches (SMOGN resampling, CSW, BMSE, EAL, SERA) with only limited benefit, and instead feeds uncertainty features from a survival model (prediction standard deviation, 80% and 90% prediction-interval widths, tail mass, and temporal context) into a CatBoost classifier for binary delay detection, raising average recall from 0.21 to 0.61 at the q=0.