Center for Translational Research in Neuroimaging and Data Science

On a four-way mood and psychosis classification task over 1,520 subjects from three studies and 14 acquisition sites, the work shows that marginal split-conformal calibration reached 0.9000 empirical coverage against a nominal 0.90 while healthy controls were covered at 0.941 and schizoaffective disorder at 0.818, and that class-conditional (Mondrian) calibration reduced this 12.3-point disparity to 0.4 points at a cost of 0.07 labels in mean set size (under 3%), making set size at matched coverage interpretable as a property of the subject and separating subjects into confident, boundary, ambiguous and unresolved strata, with the proportion independently flagged as label-ambiguous by a structural-MRI model rising monotonically across these strata (34.1%, 57.3%, 68.1%, 81.8%; p = 8.8e-18).

On a four-way mood and psychosis classification task over 1,520 subjects from three studies and 14 acquisition sites, the work shows that marginal split-conformal calibration reached 0.9000 empirical coverage against a nominal 0.90 while healthy controls were covered at 0.941 and schizoaffective disorder at 0.818, and that class-conditional (Mondrian) calibration reduced this 12.3-point disparity to 0.4 points at a cost of 0.07 labels in mean set size (under 3%), making set size at matched coverage interpretable as a property of the subject and separating subjects into confident, boundary, ambiguous and unresolved strata, with the proportion independently flagged as label-ambiguous by a structural-MRI model rising monotonically across these strata (34.1%, 57.3%, 68.1%, 81.8%; p = 8.8e-18).