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arXiv

SLLCP calibrates frozen vision-language models into safety prediction sets, raising collision-trajectory flagging from 4.6% and 39.1% to 89.6% and 88.4% over 15k CARLA trajectories

The authors propose Split Label-Localized Conformal Prediction (SLLCP), a post-hoc calibration layer over frozen vision-language models that transforms their unreliable predictions into probabilistically calibrated safety prediction sets, with label-conditional finite-sample distribution-free coverage under exchangeability; over 15k CARLA trajectories from unseen scenarios, SLLCP correctly flags 89.6% of collision-causing trajectories with a Qwen backbone and 88.4% with a Cosmos backbone, whereas the base VLMs flagged only 4.6% and 39.1%, respectively.